Nobles County, MN
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Nobles County has experienced 21 federally declared disasters since 1969, most recently Severe Storms And Flooding in 2024. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Nobles County's highest-rated hazards are hail, winter weather, and cold wave, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. NOAA records 72 storm events in the county over the past decade. Community vulnerability is elevated (83rd percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Nobles County has been designated in 21 declarations since 1969, covering 6 disaster types including severe storm (9), flood (7), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Flood | Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2018 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2014 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 total declarations since 1969.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 20 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 48.5 | 8 | 0 | $3.9M |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 20.4 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 43.2 | 13 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 73.5 | 9 | 0 | $530K |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 91.6 | 42 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 68.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively High | 91.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Moderate | 72.5 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 74.7 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 31.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 66.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 25.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Nobles County ranks in the 83rd percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 83rd | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 55th | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 96th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 82nd | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 80th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 5th | Very Low |
| Risk to homes | 7th | Very Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 33.2% | — |
NOAA tracked 72 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 36 in 2016–20 vs 36 in 2021–25 (0% — relatively stable).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Nobles County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Nobles County, Minnesota are hail, winter weather, and cold wave. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Nobles County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Nobles County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including declarations in 2024. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (9 declarations).
Has Nobles County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Nobles County include Severe Storms And Flooding (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1969.
How does Nobles County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Jackson County, MN has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Very Low) and Rock County, MN has the lowest (Very Low). Nobles County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Nobles County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Nobles County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Nobles County's composite score of 50 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 50% of US counties.