Natchitoches Parish, LA
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Natchitoches Parish has experienced 41 federally declared disasters since 1977, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Natchitoches Parish's highest-rated hazards are strong wind, heat wave, and ice storm, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 15% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (93rd percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Natchitoches Parish has been designated in 41 declarations since 1977, covering 10 disaster types including hurricane (21), flood (6), severe storm (4).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2024 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Francine |
| 2021 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Zeta |
| 2021 | Coastal Storm | Tropical Storm Nicholas |
| 2021 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Ida |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2021 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ida |
| 2021 | Hurricane | Hurricane Delta |
| 2021 | Hurricane | Hurricane Delta |
Showing the 10 most recent of 41 total declarations since 1977.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 51.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 61.3 | 46 | 1 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 57.1 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 85.8 | 81 | 2 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 64.2 | 18 | 0 | $1.2M |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 75 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 75.8 | 44 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | 87.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 49.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Moderate | 77.9 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 20 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 64.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 59.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 62.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Natchitoches Parish ranks in the 93rd percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 93rd | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 90th | High |
| Household characteristics | 47th | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 87th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 99th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 54th | Relatively Moderate |
| Risk to homes | 52nd | Relatively Moderate |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 62.9% | — |
NOAA tracked 189 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 102 in 2016–20 vs 87 in 2021–25 (-15% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Natchitoches Parish?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Natchitoches Parish, Louisiana are strong wind, heat wave, and ice storm. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Natchitoches Parish received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Natchitoches Parish has received 41 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is hurricane (21 declarations).
Has Natchitoches Parish had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Natchitoches Parish include Severe Winter Storm (2026), Tropical Storm Francine (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1977.
How does Natchitoches Parish's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Vernon Parish, LA has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Red River Parish, LA has the lowest (Very Low). Natchitoches Parish is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Natchitoches Parish's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Natchitoches Parish's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Natchitoches Parish's composite score of 56 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 56% of US counties.