Morgan County, MO
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Morgan County has experienced 27 federally declared disasters since 1973, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Morgan County's highest-rated hazards are ice storm, heat wave, and inland flooding, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 27% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (87th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Morgan County has been designated in 27 declarations since 1973, covering 6 disaster types including severe storm (14), flood (5), severe ice storm (4).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2017 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds And Flooding |
| 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
| 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 27 total declarations since 1973.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 72.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 82.7 | 39 | 0 | $175K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 67.1 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 87.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 79.1 | 5 | 0 | $195K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 36.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 53 | 27 | 0 | $360K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 52.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 79.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively High | 92.8 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 73.7 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 63.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 64.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 82.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Morgan County ranks in the 87th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 87th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 85th | High |
| Household characteristics | 84th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 16th | Very low |
| Housing type & transportation | 95th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 66th | Relatively High |
| Risk to homes | 63rd | Relatively High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 73.7% | — |
NOAA tracked 71 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 41 in 2016–20 vs 30 in 2021–25 (-27% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Morgan County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Morgan County, Missouri are ice storm, heat wave, and inland flooding. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Morgan County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Morgan County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (14 declarations).
Has Morgan County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Morgan County include Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2026). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1973.
How does Morgan County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Camden County, MO has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Cooper County, MO has the lowest (Very Low). Morgan County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Morgan County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Morgan County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Morgan County's composite score of 76 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 76% of US counties.