Modoc County, CA
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Modoc County has experienced 17 federally declared disasters since 1965, most recently Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides in 2023. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Modoc County's highest-rated hazards are drought, wildfire, and volcanic activity, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Community vulnerability is elevated (82nd percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Modoc County has been designated in 17 declarations since 1965, covering 6 disaster types including flood (7), severe storm (5), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2017 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, And Mudslides |
| 2017 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, And Mudslides |
| 2014 | Fire | Day Fire |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 1997 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, Mud And Landslides |
| 1995 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, Mud Flows |
Showing the 10 most recent of 17 total declarations since 1965.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 92.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 44.8 | 7 | 0 | $1.0M |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 68.8 | 27 | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 29.8 | 4 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 34.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 9.7 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Very Low | 9.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively High | 96.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 33.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 30.6 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 81.4 | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Modoc County ranks in the 82nd percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 82nd | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 69th | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 90th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 59th | Moderate |
| Housing type & transportation | 79th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 90th | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 91st | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 68.9% | — |
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Modoc County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Modoc County, California are drought, wildfire, and volcanic activity. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has Modoc County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Modoc County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including declarations in 2023. The most common disaster type on record is flood (7 declarations).
Has Modoc County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Modoc County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides in 2023.
How does Modoc County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Washoe County, NV has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively High) and Lake County, OR has the lowest (Very Low). Modoc County is rated Very Low overall.
How is Modoc County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Modoc County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Modoc County's composite score of 40 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 40% of US counties.