Middlesex County, NJ

FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data

Population: 862,614 · Cities: New Brunswick , Perth Amboy , Sayreville , Carteret , South Plainfield , South River , Metuchen , Highland Park , Middlesex

Relatively High Riskier than 98% of US counties
Very Low Relatively Low Relatively Moderate Relatively High Very High

Middlesex County has experienced 30 federally declared disasters since 1965, most recently Remnants Of Hurricane Ida in 2021. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively High — higher risk than most US counties.

Middlesex County's highest-rated hazards are strong wind, winter weather, and ice storm, with its top risk rated "Very High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 23% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.

Past disasters & FEMA designations

A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Middlesex County has been designated in 30 declarations since 1965, covering 9 disaster types including hurricane (9), severe storm (5), flood (5).

2002–2026
Year Type Event name
2021 Hurricane Remnants Of Hurricane Ida
2021 Hurricane Remnants Of Hurricane Ida
2020 Biological Covid-19 Pandemic
2020 Biological Covid-19
2016 Severe Storm Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm
2013 Hurricane Hurricane Sandy
2013 Hurricane Hurricane Sandy
2012 Severe Storm Severe Storm
2011 Snowstorm Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm
2011 Hurricane Hurricane Irene

Showing the 10 most recent of 30 total declarations since 1965.

Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.

Risk by hazard type

Hazard Risk rating Risk score Recorded events Deaths Prop. damage
Wildfire Relatively Low 79.7 0 0
Inland Flooding Relatively High 98.9 92 3 $50.1M
Coastal Flooding Relatively High 83.6 26 0
Earthquake Relatively Moderate 96.2
Heat Wave Relatively Moderate 96.5 18 0
Tornado Relatively High 94.5 0 0
Hurricane Relatively Moderate 92.6 0 0
Hail Relatively Low 42.3 28 0
Strong Wind Very High 99.7 0 0
Winter Weather Very High 99.6 0 0
Ice Storm Very High 99.2
Cold Wave Relatively High 94.3
Lightning Relatively Moderate 81.9 3 0 $10K
Drought Relatively Moderate 75 0 0
Landslide Relatively Low 73.3 0 0
Avalanche Not Applicable
Tsunami Insufficient Data
Volcanic Activity Not Applicable

Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.

Community vulnerability

Middlesex County ranks in the 66th percentile (Moderate) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.

SVI theme Percentile Vulnerability level
Overall 66th Moderate
Socioeconomic status 50th Moderate
Household characteristics 24th Very low
Racial & ethnic minority status 92nd High
Housing type & transportation 92nd High

Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.

Future risk outlook

Wildfire metric National percentile Level
Burn probability 40th Relatively Moderate
Risk to homes 40th Relatively Moderate
Buildings in direct exposure zone 16.7%

NOAA tracked 167 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 75 in 2016–20 vs 92 in 2021–25 (+23% — frequency increasing).

Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.

Nearby counties

Compare Middlesex County with other counties → All New Jersey counties →

Frequently asked questions

What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Middlesex County?

According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Middlesex County, New Jersey are strong wind, winter weather, and ice storm. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively High — higher risk than most US counties.

Has Middlesex County received federal disaster declarations?

Yes. Middlesex County has received 30 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including declarations in 2021. The most common disaster type on record is hurricane (9 declarations).

Has Middlesex County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?

No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Middlesex County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Remnants Of Hurricane Ida in 2021.

How does Middlesex County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?

Among neighboring counties, Essex County, NJ has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively High) and Somerset County, NJ has the lowest (Relatively Moderate). Middlesex County is rated Relatively High overall.

How is Middlesex County's composite disaster risk index calculated?

Middlesex County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Middlesex County's composite score of 98 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 98% of US counties.

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