Middlesex County, NJ
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Middlesex County has experienced 30 federally declared disasters since 1965, most recently Remnants Of Hurricane Ida in 2021. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively High — higher risk than most US counties.
Middlesex County's highest-rated hazards are strong wind, winter weather, and ice storm, with its top risk rated "Very High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 23% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Middlesex County has been designated in 30 declarations since 1965, covering 9 disaster types including hurricane (9), severe storm (5), flood (5).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Hurricane | Remnants Of Hurricane Ida |
| 2021 | Hurricane | Remnants Of Hurricane Ida |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm |
| 2011 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
| 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
Showing the 10 most recent of 30 total declarations since 1965.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 79.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively High | 98.9 | 92 | 3 | $50.1M |
| Coastal Flooding | Relatively High | 83.6 | 26 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | 96.2 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 96.5 | 18 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively High | 94.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Relatively Moderate | 92.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 42.3 | 28 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Very High | 99.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Very High | 99.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very High | 99.2 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively High | 94.3 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 81.9 | 3 | 0 | $10K |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 75 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 73.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Middlesex County ranks in the 66th percentile (Moderate) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 66th | Moderate |
| Socioeconomic status | 50th | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 24th | Very low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 92nd | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 92nd | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 40th | Relatively Moderate |
| Risk to homes | 40th | Relatively Moderate |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 16.7% | — |
NOAA tracked 167 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 75 in 2016–20 vs 92 in 2021–25 (+23% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Middlesex County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Middlesex County, New Jersey are strong wind, winter weather, and ice storm. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively High — higher risk than most US counties.
Has Middlesex County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Middlesex County has received 30 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including declarations in 2021. The most common disaster type on record is hurricane (9 declarations).
Has Middlesex County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Middlesex County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Remnants Of Hurricane Ida in 2021.
How does Middlesex County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Essex County, NJ has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively High) and Somerset County, NJ has the lowest (Relatively Moderate). Middlesex County is rated Relatively High overall.
How is Middlesex County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Middlesex County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Middlesex County's composite score of 98 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 98% of US counties.