Menard County, TX
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Menard County has experienced 18 federally declared disasters since 1993, most recently Flooding in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Menard County's highest-rated hazards are drought, wildfire, and hurricane, with its top risk rated "Relatively Low" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 33% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (86th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Menard County has been designated in 18 declarations since 1993, covering 7 disaster types including fire (5), flood (3), hurricane (3).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Flood | Flooding |
| 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
Showing the 10 most recent of 18 total declarations since 1993.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 60 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Very Low | 12 | 19 | 0 | $7.1M |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 3.8 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 14 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 15.6 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 36 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 33.3 | 36 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 8.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 16.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.4 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 9.2 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 33.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 60.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 8.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Menard County ranks in the 86th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 86th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 97th | High |
| Household characteristics | 86th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 77th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 33rd | Low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 71st | Relatively High |
| Risk to homes | 75th | Relatively High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 75.9% | — |
NOAA tracked 56 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 24 in 2016–20 vs 32 in 2021–25 (+33% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Menard County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Menard County, Texas are drought, wildfire, and hurricane. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has Menard County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Menard County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1993, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is fire (5 declarations).
Has Menard County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Menard County include Flooding (2026), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding (2025). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1993.
How does Menard County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Kimble County, TX has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Very Low) and Schleicher County, TX has the lowest (Very Low). Menard County is rated Very Low overall.
How is Menard County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Menard County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Menard County's composite score of 3 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 3% of US counties.