McCulloch County, TX
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
McCulloch County has experienced 19 federally declared disasters since 1989, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding in 2025. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
McCulloch County's highest-rated hazards are drought, wildfire, and hail, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 134% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (79th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. McCulloch County has been designated in 19 declarations since 1989, covering 7 disaster types including fire (5), flood (3), hurricane (3).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 total declarations since 1989.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 69.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Very Low | 16.8 | 11 | 0 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 6 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 33.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 29.5 | 6 | 0 | $150K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 30.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 53.3 | 100 | 0 | $3K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 18 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 37.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 4.5 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 13.7 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 42.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 83.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 6.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
McCulloch County ranks in the 79th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 79th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 92nd | High |
| Household characteristics | 89th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 76th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 20th | Very low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 83rd | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 84th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 66.1% | — |
NOAA tracked 117 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 35 in 2016–20 vs 82 in 2021–25 (+134% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in McCulloch County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in McCulloch County, Texas are drought, wildfire, and hail. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has McCulloch County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. McCulloch County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1989, including declarations in 2025. The most common disaster type on record is fire (5 declarations).
Has McCulloch County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for McCulloch County include Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding (2025), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1989.
How does McCulloch County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Brown County, TX has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Menard County, TX has the lowest (Very Low). McCulloch County is rated Very Low overall.
How is McCulloch County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
McCulloch County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. McCulloch County's composite score of 10 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 10% of US counties.