McLean County, ND
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
McLean County has experienced 24 federally declared disasters since 1966, most recently Severe Storm, Tornadoes, And Straight-Line Winds in 2025. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
McLean County's highest-rated hazards are winter weather, hail, and cold wave, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 60% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is relatively low (7th percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. McLean County has been designated in 24 declarations since 1966, covering 6 disaster types including severe storm (9), flood (9), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm, Tornadoes, And Straight-Line Winds |
| 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm And Flooding |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
| 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
| 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2006 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm And Record And/Or Near Record Snow |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 total declarations since 1966.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 77 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Very Low | 33.1 | 1 | 0 | $40K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 15 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 15.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 45.5 | 9 | 0 | $575K |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 86.5 | 55 | 0 | $25K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 69.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively High | 94.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Moderate | 81 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 84.4 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Very Low | 11.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 32.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 30.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
McLean County ranks in the 7th percentile (Very low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7th | Very low |
| Socioeconomic status | 2nd | Very low |
| Household characteristics | 30th | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 36th | Low |
| Housing type & transportation | 19th | Very low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 34th | Relatively Low |
| Risk to homes | 37th | Relatively Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 62.6% | — |
NOAA tracked 65 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 25 in 2016–20 vs 40 in 2021–25 (+60% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in McLean County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in McLean County, North Dakota are winter weather, hail, and cold wave. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has McLean County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. McLean County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1966, including declarations in 2025. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (9 declarations).
Has McLean County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for McLean County include Severe Storm, Tornadoes, And Straight-Line Winds (2025). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1966.
How does McLean County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Ward County, ND has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Oliver County, ND has the lowest (Very Low). McLean County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is McLean County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
McLean County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. McLean County's composite score of 43 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 43% of US counties.