McKenzie County, ND
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
McKenzie County has experienced 24 federally declared disasters since 1969, most recently Wildfires And Straight-Line Winds in 2025. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
McKenzie County's highest-rated hazards are winter weather, cold wave, and hail, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 39% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. McKenzie County has been designated in 24 declarations since 1969, covering 8 disaster types including severe storm (9), flood (5), fire (3).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Fire | Wildfires And Straight-Line Winds |
| 2025 | Fire | Elk Horn Fire |
| 2025 | Fire | Bear Den Fire |
| 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm And Flooding |
| 2021 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2021 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Flood | Flooding |
| 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 total declarations since 1969.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 77.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Very Low | 15.3 | 1 | 0 | $4.0M |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 7.8 | 1 | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 19.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 33.1 | 7 | 1 | $3.5M |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 79.2 | 58 | 0 | $547K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 50.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively High | 87.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Moderate | 70.9 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 79.5 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 25.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 31 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 49.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
McKenzie County ranks in the 47th percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 47th | Low |
| Socioeconomic status | 34th | Low |
| Household characteristics | 11th | Very low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 60th | Moderate |
| Housing type & transportation | 87th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 77th | Relatively High |
| Risk to homes | 78th | Relatively High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 66.8% | — |
NOAA tracked 66 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 41 in 2016–20 vs 25 in 2021–25 (-39% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in McKenzie County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in McKenzie County, North Dakota are winter weather, cold wave, and hail. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has McKenzie County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. McKenzie County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including declarations in 2025. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (9 declarations).
Has McKenzie County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for McKenzie County include Wildfires And Straight-Line Winds (2025), Elk Horn Fire (2025), Bear Den Fire (2025). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1969.
How does McKenzie County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Williams County, ND has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Billings County, ND has the lowest (Very Low). McKenzie County is rated Very Low overall.
How is McKenzie County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
McKenzie County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. McKenzie County's composite score of 25 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 25% of US counties.