McDonald County, MO
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
McDonald County has experienced 26 federally declared disasters since 1973, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding in 2025. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
McDonald County's highest-rated hazards are ice storm, strong wind, and heat wave, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. NOAA records 158 storm events in the county over the past decade. Community vulnerability is elevated (89th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. McDonald County has been designated in 26 declarations since 1973, covering 5 disaster types including severe storm (14), flood (5), severe ice storm (4).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2017 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds And Flooding |
| 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds And Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 26 total declarations since 1973.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 72.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 73.7 | 93 | 1 | $1.6M |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 38.7 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 74.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 73.3 | 5 | 0 | $1.2M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 31.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 36.5 | 60 | 0 | $156K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 80.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 45.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively High | 86.3 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 54.5 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 36.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 69.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 74.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
McDonald County ranks in the 89th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 89th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 96th | High |
| Household characteristics | 86th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 67th | Moderate |
| Housing type & transportation | 59th | Moderate |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 75th | Relatively High |
| Risk to homes | 72nd | Relatively High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 91.1% | — |
NOAA tracked 158 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 76 in 2016–20 vs 82 in 2021–25 (+8% — relatively stable).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in McDonald County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in McDonald County, Missouri are ice storm, strong wind, and heat wave. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has McDonald County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. McDonald County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including declarations in 2025. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (14 declarations).
Has McDonald County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for McDonald County include Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2025), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1973.
How does McDonald County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Benton County, AR has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Barry County, MO has the lowest (Relatively Low). McDonald County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is McDonald County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
McDonald County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. McDonald County's composite score of 64 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 64% of US counties.