Madison County, MO
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Madison County has experienced 25 federally declared disasters since 1973, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Wildfires in 2025. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Madison County's highest-rated hazards are heat wave, earthquake, and cold wave, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 60% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Madison County has been designated in 25 declarations since 1973, covering 6 disaster types including severe storm (16), severe ice storm (3), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Wildfires |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Tornadoes |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2017 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds And Flooding |
| 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 total declarations since 1973.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 30.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 54.3 | 8 | 0 | $151K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 81.3 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 84.2 | 4 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 51.9 | 9 | 0 | $50K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 33.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 29.8 | 5 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 55.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 59.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 35.4 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 76 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 33.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Very Low | 16.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 67.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Madison County ranks in the 51st percentile (Moderate) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 51st | Moderate |
| Socioeconomic status | 56th | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 73rd | Moderate |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 11th | Very low |
| Housing type & transportation | 42nd | Low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 50th | Relatively Moderate |
| Risk to homes | 47th | Relatively Moderate |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 76.8% | — |
NOAA tracked 26 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 10 in 2016–20 vs 16 in 2021–25 (+60% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Madison County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Madison County, Missouri are heat wave, earthquake, and cold wave. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Madison County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Madison County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including declarations in 2025. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (16 declarations).
Has Madison County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Madison County include Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Wildfires (2025), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2025), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1973.
How does Madison County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, St. Francois County, MO has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Bollinger County, MO has the lowest (Very Low). Madison County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Madison County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Madison County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Madison County's composite score of 51 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 51% of US counties.