Lincoln County, MT
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Lincoln County has experienced 14 federally declared disasters since 1974, most recently Severe Storms And Flooding in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Lincoln County's highest-rated hazards are wildfire, avalanche, and landslide, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Lincoln County has been designated in 14 declarations since 1974, covering 7 disaster types including fire (4), flood (3), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Straight-Line Winds | Severe Winter Storm And Straight-Line Winds |
| 2026 | Flood | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2026 | Flood | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2017 | Fire | West Fork Fire |
| 2017 | Fire | Moose Peak Fire |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 2000 | Fire | Wildfires |
| 2000 | Fire | Mt - Northwestern Zone 1 Fire Complex |
Showing the 10 most recent of 14 total declarations since 1974.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 96.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 65.5 | 4 | 0 | $31.0M |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 63.5 | 7 | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 37.1 | 4 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 4.1 | 2 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 10 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively High | 87 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 41.6 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 72.8 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 28.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Very Low | 15.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Moderate | 92 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Relatively High | 94.3 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Lincoln County ranks in the 56th percentile (Moderate) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 56th | Moderate |
| Socioeconomic status | 85th | High |
| Household characteristics | 49th | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 24th | Very low |
| Housing type & transportation | 25th | Low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 93rd | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 94th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 74.4% | — |
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Lincoln County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Lincoln County, Montana are wildfire, avalanche, and landslide. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Lincoln County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Lincoln County has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1974, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is fire (4 declarations).
Has Lincoln County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Lincoln County include Severe Winter Storm And Straight-Line Winds (2026), Severe Storms And Flooding (2026), Severe Storms And Flooding (2026). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1974.
How does Lincoln County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Flathead County, MT has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Boundary County, ID has the lowest (Very Low). Lincoln County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Lincoln County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Lincoln County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Lincoln County's composite score of 64 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 64% of US counties.