Lincoln County, MN
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Lincoln County has experienced 14 federally declared disasters since 1969, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding in 2022. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Lincoln County's highest-rated hazards are hail, winter weather, and drought, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. NOAA records 64 storm events in the county over the past decade. Community vulnerability is relatively low (7th percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Lincoln County has been designated in 14 declarations since 1969, covering 5 disaster types including severe storm (7), flood (3), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Flood | Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, And Tornadoes |
| 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 1997 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| 1997 | Severe Storm | Severe Ice Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 14 total declarations since 1969.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 32.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Very Low | 28.9 | 25 | 0 | $285K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 5.6 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 50.7 | 12 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 28.4 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 77.5 | 26 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 29.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 70.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 54.7 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 48 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Very Low | 1.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 66.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 43.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Lincoln County ranks in the 7th percentile (Very low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7th | Very low |
| Socioeconomic status | 10th | Very low |
| Household characteristics | 31st | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 7th | Very low |
| Housing type & transportation | 10th | Very low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 24th | Relatively Low |
| Risk to homes | 30th | Relatively Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 52.8% | — |
NOAA tracked 64 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 33 in 2016–20 vs 31 in 2021–25 (-6% — relatively stable).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Lincoln County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Lincoln County, Minnesota are hail, winter weather, and drought. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has Lincoln County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Lincoln County has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including declarations in 2022. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (7 declarations).
Has Lincoln County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Lincoln County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding in 2022.
How does Lincoln County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Brookings County, SD has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Deuel County, SD has the lowest (Very Low). Lincoln County is rated Very Low overall.
How is Lincoln County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Lincoln County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Lincoln County's composite score of 18 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 18% of US counties.