Lincoln County, CO
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Lincoln County has experienced 10 federally declared disasters since 1965, most recently Severe Storms, Flooding, And Tornadoes in 2023. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Lincoln County's highest-rated hazards are hail, drought, and wildfire, with its top risk rated "Relatively Low" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 149% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Lincoln County has been designated in 10 declarations since 1965, covering 7 disaster types including flood (3), biological (2), coastal storm (1).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, And Tornadoes |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2005 | Coastal Storm | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 2002 | Fire | Wildfires |
| 2001 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| 1997 | Flood | Severe Storms, Heavy Rain, Flash Floods, Flooding, Mudslides |
| 1977 | Drought | Drought |
| 1965 | Tornado | Tornadoes, Severe Storms & Flooding |
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 58.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Very Low | 14.8 | 5 | 0 | $80K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 18.6 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 5.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 25.1 | 16 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 67 | 178 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 29 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 45.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 9.6 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 30.5 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Very Low | 17 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 63.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 4.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Lincoln County ranks in the 39th percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 39th | Low |
| Socioeconomic status | 42nd | Low |
| Household characteristics | 5th | Very low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 60th | Moderate |
| Housing type & transportation | 66th | Moderate |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 57th | Relatively Moderate |
| Risk to homes | 60th | Relatively High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 62.9% | — |
NOAA tracked 199 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 57 in 2016–20 vs 142 in 2021–25 (+149% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Lincoln County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Lincoln County, Colorado are hail, drought, and wildfire. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has Lincoln County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Lincoln County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including declarations in 2023. The most common disaster type on record is flood (3 declarations).
Has Lincoln County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Lincoln County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Severe Storms, Flooding, And Tornadoes in 2023.
How does Lincoln County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, El Paso County, CO has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Cheyenne County, CO has the lowest (Very Low). Lincoln County is rated Very Low overall.
How is Lincoln County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Lincoln County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Lincoln County's composite score of 8 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 8% of US counties.