Jefferson County, MO
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Jefferson County has experienced 30 federally declared disasters since 1973, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Wildfires in 2025. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Jefferson County's highest-rated hazards are strong wind, landslide, and tornado, with its top risk rated "Very High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 33% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is relatively low (11th percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Jefferson County has been designated in 30 declarations since 1973, covering 7 disaster types including severe storm (16), flood (7), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Wildfires |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2017 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds And Flooding |
| 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2009 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 30 total declarations since 1973.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 53.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 91.4 | 15 | 1 | $240K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | 93.4 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 92.1 | 11 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively High | 95.1 | 10 | 0 | $935K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 23.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 93.9 | 70 | 0 | $5K |
| Strong Wind | Very High | 98.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 84.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Moderate | 69.4 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 88.9 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 91.2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Drought | Very Low | 22.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Moderate | 95.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Jefferson County ranks in the 11th percentile (Very low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11th | Very low |
| Socioeconomic status | 19th | Very low |
| Household characteristics | 22nd | Very low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 28th | Low |
| Housing type & transportation | 10th | Very low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 42nd | Relatively Moderate |
| Risk to homes | 40th | Relatively Moderate |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 57.6% | — |
NOAA tracked 107 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 46 in 2016–20 vs 61 in 2021–25 (+33% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Jefferson County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Jefferson County, Missouri are strong wind, landslide, and tornado. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Has Jefferson County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Jefferson County has received 30 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including declarations in 2025. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (16 declarations).
Has Jefferson County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Jefferson County include Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Wildfires (2025). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1973.
How does Jefferson County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, St. Louis County, MO has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively High) and Monroe County, IL has the lowest (Very Low). Jefferson County is rated Relatively Moderate overall.
How is Jefferson County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Jefferson County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Jefferson County's composite score of 91 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 91% of US counties.