Jefferson County, CO
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Jefferson County has experienced 15 federally declared disasters since 1969, most recently Quarry Fire in 2024. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively High — higher risk than most US counties.
Jefferson County's highest-rated hazards are hail, lightning, and wildfire, with its top risk rated "Very High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 24% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is relatively low (9th percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Jefferson County has been designated in 15 declarations since 1969, covering 5 disaster types including fire (5), flood (5), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Fire | Quarry Fire |
| 2023 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, And Tornadoes |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2012 | Fire | Lower North Fork Fire |
| 2011 | Fire | Indian Gulch Fire |
| 2007 | Snowstorm | Snow |
| 2005 | Coastal Storm | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 15 total declarations since 1969.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively High | 99.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively High | 93.4 | 4 | 1 | $45K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 84 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 71 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively High | 96.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very High | 99.8 | 151 | 0 | $2.3B |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | 92.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Very High | 97.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Moderate | 71.8 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 73.3 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Very High | 99.7 | 2 | 1 | $25K |
| Drought | Very Low | 27.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Moderate | 97.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Relatively Low | 77.9 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 71 | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Jefferson County ranks in the 9th percentile (Very low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9th | Very low |
| Socioeconomic status | 12th | Very low |
| Household characteristics | 3rd | Very low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 58th | Moderate |
| Housing type & transportation | 22nd | Very low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 97th | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 98th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 21.1% | — |
NOAA tracked 157 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 70 in 2016–20 vs 87 in 2021–25 (+24% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Jefferson County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Jefferson County, Colorado are hail, lightning, and wildfire. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively High — higher risk than most US counties.
Has Jefferson County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Jefferson County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including declarations in 2024. The most common disaster type on record is fire (5 declarations).
Has Jefferson County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Jefferson County include Quarry Fire (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1969.
How does Jefferson County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Denver County, CO has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively High) and Gilpin County, CO has the lowest (Very Low). Jefferson County is rated Relatively High overall.
How is Jefferson County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Jefferson County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Jefferson County's composite score of 95 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 95% of US counties.