Grand Traverse County, MI
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Grand Traverse County has experienced 6 federally declared disasters since 1977, most recently Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Grand Traverse County's highest-rated hazards are winter weather, cold wave, and landslide, with its top risk rated "Very High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 54% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is relatively low (20th percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Grand Traverse County has been designated in 6 declarations since 1977, covering 5 disaster types including biological (2), flood (1), hurricane (1).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 1978 | Snowstorm | Blizzards & Snowstorms |
| 1977 | Drought | Drought |
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 31 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 58 | 11 | 0 | $450K |
| Coastal Flooding | Very Low | 32.6 | 2 | 0 | $32K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 15 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 33.5 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 43 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 18.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 53.1 | 18 | 0 | $6K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 58.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Very High | 98 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 9.5 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively High | 95.6 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 66.8 | 1 | 0 | $12K |
| Drought | No Rating | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 78.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Grand Traverse County ranks in the 20th percentile (Very low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20th | Very low |
| Socioeconomic status | 17th | Very low |
| Household characteristics | 9th | Very low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 22nd | Very low |
| Housing type & transportation | 62nd | Moderate |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 21st | Relatively Low |
| Risk to homes | 22nd | Relatively Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 63.2% | — |
NOAA tracked 33 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 13 in 2016–20 vs 20 in 2021–25 (+54% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Grand Traverse County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Grand Traverse County, Michigan are winter weather, cold wave, and landslide. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Grand Traverse County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Grand Traverse County has received 6 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is biological (2 declarations).
Has Grand Traverse County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Grand Traverse County include Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2026). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1977.
How does Grand Traverse County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Leelanau County, MI has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Missaukee County, MI has the lowest (Very Low). Grand Traverse County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Grand Traverse County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Grand Traverse County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Grand Traverse County's composite score of 66 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 66% of US counties.