Garrard County, KY
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Garrard County has experienced 19 federally declared disasters since 1993, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Garrard County's highest-rated hazards are strong wind, hail, and ice storm, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Garrard County has been designated in 19 declarations since 1993, covering 6 disaster types including severe storm (9), severe ice storm (3), snowstorm (3).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, And Landslides |
| 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, Mudslides, And Tornadoes |
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 total declarations since 1993.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 18.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 40.9 | 8 | 0 | $30K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 49.4 | 1 | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 29.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 57.6 | 5 | 0 | $50K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 44.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 62.3 | 3 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 69.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 58.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Moderate | 61.2 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 48.2 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 50.7 | 1 | 0 | $3K |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 32.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 41.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Garrard County ranks in the 33rd percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 33rd | Low |
| Socioeconomic status | 63rd | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 42nd | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 18th | Very low |
| Housing type & transportation | 10th | Very low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 41st | Relatively Moderate |
| Risk to homes | 38th | Relatively Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 92.8% | — |
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Garrard County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Garrard County, Kentucky are strong wind, hail, and ice storm. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has Garrard County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Garrard County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1993, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (9 declarations).
Has Garrard County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Garrard County include Severe Winter Storm (2026), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides (2025), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2025), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, And Landslides (2025), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Landslides, And Mudslides (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1993.
How does Garrard County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Madison County, KY has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Lincoln County, KY has the lowest (Very Low). Garrard County is rated Very Low overall.
How is Garrard County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Garrard County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Garrard County's composite score of 30 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 30% of US counties.