Fergus County, MT
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Fergus County has experienced 10 federally declared disasters since 1975, most recently Flooding in 2024. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Fergus County's highest-rated hazards are cold wave, winter weather, and wildfire, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 25% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Fergus County has been designated in 10 declarations since 1975, covering 5 disaster types including flood (4), severe storm (2), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm And Flooding |
| 2024 | Flood | Flooding |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2013 | Flood | Flooding |
| 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 2000 | Fire | Wildfires |
| 1986 | Flood | Heavy Rains, Landslides & Flooding |
| 1975 | Flood | Rains, Showmelt, Storms & Flooding |
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 80.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 36.5 | 8 | 0 | $235K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 25.9 | 1 | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 20.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 15.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 27.3 | 62 | 0 | $1K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 8.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively High | 91.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 11.4 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively High | 91.8 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 69 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 31.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 71.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 25 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Fergus County ranks in the 38th percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 38th | Low |
| Socioeconomic status | 35th | Low |
| Household characteristics | 9th | Very low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 14th | Very low |
| Housing type & transportation | 88th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 73rd | Relatively High |
| Risk to homes | 76th | Relatively High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 63.2% | — |
NOAA tracked 70 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 40 in 2016–20 vs 30 in 2021–25 (-25% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Fergus County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Fergus County, Montana are cold wave, winter weather, and wildfire. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Fergus County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Fergus County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1975, including declarations in 2024. The most common disaster type on record is flood (4 declarations).
Has Fergus County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Fergus County include Severe Winter Storm And Flooding (2024), Flooding (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1975.
How does Fergus County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Chouteau County, MT has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Very Low) and Golden Valley County, MT has the lowest (Very Low). Fergus County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Fergus County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Fergus County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Fergus County's composite score of 45 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 45% of US counties.