Fayette County, KY

FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data

Population: 322,301 · Cities: Lexington-Fayette

Relatively Moderate Riskier than 92% of US counties
Very Low Relatively Low Relatively Moderate Relatively High Very High

Fayette County has experienced 21 federally declared disasters since 1979, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.

Fayette County's highest-rated hazards are tornado, cold wave, and winter weather, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. NOAA records 44 storm events in the county over the past decade.

Past disasters & FEMA designations

A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Fayette County has been designated in 21 declarations since 1979, covering 7 disaster types including severe storm (9), flood (3), snowstorm (3).

2002–2026
Year Type Event name
2026 Winter Storm Severe Winter Storm
2025 Severe Storm Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding
2025 Severe Storm Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, And Landslides
2024 Severe Storm Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Landslides, And Mudslides
2023 Severe Storm Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides
2021 Flood Severe, Storms, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides
2020 Biological Covid-19 Pandemic
2020 Biological Covid-19
2010 Severe Storm Severe Storms, Flooding, Mudslides, And Tornadoes
2009 Severe Ice Storm Severe Winter Storm And Flooding

Showing the 10 most recent of 21 total declarations since 1979.

Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.

Risk by hazard type

Hazard Risk rating Risk score Recorded events Deaths Prop. damage
Wildfire Very Low 26.9 0 0
Inland Flooding Relatively Moderate 92.7 23 0 $70K
Coastal Flooding Not Applicable 0 0
Earthquake Relatively Moderate 93
Heat Wave Relatively Moderate 87 0 0
Tornado Relatively High 98 0 0
Hurricane Very Low 57 0 0
Hail Relatively Moderate 93.1 19 0
Strong Wind Relatively High 95.1 0 0
Winter Weather Relatively High 96.4 0 0
Ice Storm Relatively High 91.2
Cold Wave Relatively High 96.9
Lightning Relatively High 95.9 6 0 $2.6M
Drought Very Low 22 0 0
Landslide Very Low 14 0 0
Avalanche Not Applicable
Tsunami Not Applicable
Volcanic Activity Not Applicable

Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.

Community vulnerability

Fayette County ranks in the 55th percentile (Moderate) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.

SVI theme Percentile Vulnerability level
Overall 55th Moderate
Socioeconomic status 53rd Moderate
Household characteristics 16th Very low
Racial & ethnic minority status 67th Moderate
Housing type & transportation 76th High

Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.

Future risk outlook

Wildfire metric National percentile Level
Burn probability 21st Relatively Low
Risk to homes 20th Relatively Low
Buildings in direct exposure zone 24.0%

NOAA tracked 44 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 23 in 2016–20 vs 21 in 2021–25 (-9% — relatively stable).

Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.

Nearby counties

Compare Fayette County with other counties → All Kentucky counties →

Frequently asked questions

What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Fayette County?

According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Fayette County, Kentucky are tornado, cold wave, and winter weather. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.

Has Fayette County received federal disaster declarations?

Yes. Fayette County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1979, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (9 declarations).

Has Fayette County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?

Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Fayette County include Severe Winter Storm (2026), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2025), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, And Landslides (2025), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Landslides, And Mudslides (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1979.

How does Fayette County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?

Among neighboring counties, Madison County, KY has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Clark County, KY has the lowest (Very Low). Fayette County is rated Relatively Moderate overall.

How is Fayette County's composite disaster risk index calculated?

Fayette County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Fayette County's composite score of 92 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 92% of US counties.

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