Estill County, KY
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Estill County has experienced 38 federally declared disasters since 1979, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Estill County's highest-rated hazards are inland flooding, winter weather, and avalanche, with its top risk rated "Relatively Low" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 115% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (76th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Estill County has been designated in 38 declarations since 1979, covering 8 disaster types including severe storm (21), flood (5), snowstorm (4).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, And Landslides |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Tornadoes |
| 2025 | Tropical Storm | Remnants Of Hurricane Helene |
| 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2021 | Flood | Severe, Storms, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
Showing the 10 most recent of 38 total declarations since 1979.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 44.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 63.9 | 31 | 0 | $15K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 35.4 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 34.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 37.8 | 1 | 0 | $40K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 28.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 41.3 | 8 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 47.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 59.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 30.8 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 40.7 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 42.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Very Low | 17.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 51.8 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 51.8 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Estill County ranks in the 76th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 76th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 87th | High |
| Household characteristics | 96th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 2nd | Very low |
| Housing type & transportation | 43rd | Low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 57th | Relatively Moderate |
| Risk to homes | 53rd | Relatively Moderate |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 81.3% | — |
NOAA tracked 41 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 13 in 2016–20 vs 28 in 2021–25 (+115% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Estill County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Estill County, Kentucky are inland flooding, winter weather, and avalanche. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has Estill County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Estill County has received 38 federal disaster declarations since 1979, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (21 declarations).
Has Estill County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Estill County include Severe Winter Storm (2026), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides (2025), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2025), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides (2025), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, And Landslides (2025), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Tornadoes (2025), Remnants Of Hurricane Helene (2025), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Landslides, And Mudslides (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1979.
How does Estill County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Madison County, KY has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Owsley County, KY has the lowest (Very Low). Estill County is rated Very Low overall.
How is Estill County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Estill County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Estill County's composite score of 42 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 42% of US counties.