Ellis County, TX
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Ellis County has experienced 24 federally declared disasters since 1989, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding in 2024. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Ellis County's highest-rated hazards are hail, heat wave, and cold wave, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 200% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Ellis County has been designated in 24 declarations since 1989, covering 8 disaster types including severe storm (6), fire (6), hurricane (5).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2020 | Hurricane | Tropical Storms Marco And Laura |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds And Flooding |
| 2011 | Fire | County Line Fire |
| 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 total declarations since 1989.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 86.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 83.5 | 28 | 0 | $80K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 51.1 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 90.6 | 49 | 1 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 87.8 | 9 | 0 | $12.6M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 52.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively High | 96.5 | 142 | 0 | $20.7M |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 41.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 63.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 58 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 88.9 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 86.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 41.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 39.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Ellis County ranks in the 57th percentile (Moderate) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 57th | Moderate |
| Socioeconomic status | 48th | Low |
| Household characteristics | 76th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 82nd | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 35th | Low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 67th | Relatively High |
| Risk to homes | 68th | Relatively High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 61.3% | — |
NOAA tracked 228 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 57 in 2016–20 vs 171 in 2021–25 (+200% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Ellis County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Ellis County, Texas are hail, heat wave, and cold wave. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Has Ellis County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Ellis County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1989, including declarations in 2024. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (6 declarations).
Has Ellis County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Ellis County include Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1989.
How does Ellis County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Dallas County, TX has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Very High) and Hill County, TX has the lowest (Relatively Low). Ellis County is rated Relatively Moderate overall.
How is Ellis County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Ellis County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Ellis County's composite score of 82 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 82% of US counties.