Elkhart County, IN
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Elkhart County has experienced 13 federally declared disasters since 1965, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Elkhart County's highest-rated hazards are strong wind, cold wave, and hail, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 19% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (81st percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Elkhart County has been designated in 13 declarations since 1965, covering 7 disaster types including snowstorm (4), biological (2), flood (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2018 | Flood | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2007 | Snowstorm | Snow |
| 2005 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms And Flooding |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 2001 | Snowstorm | Snow |
| 1999 | Snowstorm | In-Winter Storm 12/23/98 |
Showing the 10 most recent of 13 total declarations since 1965.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 32.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 84.1 | 12 | 0 | $1.2M |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 77.2 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 72.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively High | 90.6 | 2 | 0 | $500K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 47.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 93.6 | 42 | 0 | $21K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | 95.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 80.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Moderate | 61.7 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively High | 94.6 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 66.3 | 3 | 0 | $35K |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 47.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 45.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Elkhart County ranks in the 81st percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 81st | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 72nd | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 79th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 63rd | Moderate |
| Housing type & transportation | 82nd | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 3rd | Very Low |
| Risk to homes | 2nd | Very Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 29.6% | — |
NOAA tracked 59 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 27 in 2016–20 vs 32 in 2021–25 (+19% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Elkhart County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Elkhart County, Indiana are strong wind, cold wave, and hail. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Has Elkhart County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Elkhart County has received 13 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is snowstorm (4 declarations).
Has Elkhart County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Elkhart County include Severe Winter Storm (2026). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1965.
How does Elkhart County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, St. Joseph County, IN has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Noble County, IN has the lowest (Relatively Low). Elkhart County is rated Relatively Moderate overall.
How is Elkhart County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Elkhart County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Elkhart County's composite score of 84 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 84% of US counties.