Dawson County, MT
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Dawson County has experienced 10 federally declared disasters since 1986, most recently Severe Winter Storm And Straight-Line Winds in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Dawson County's highest-rated hazards are cold wave, winter weather, and lightning, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 38% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is relatively low (8th percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Dawson County has been designated in 10 declarations since 1986, covering 6 disaster types including flood (3), biological (2), severe storm (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Straight-Line Winds | Severe Winter Storm And Straight-Line Winds |
| 2021 | Other | Straight-Line Winds |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2014 | Flood | Ice Jams And Flooding |
| 2013 | Flood | Flooding |
| 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 1997 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms,Ice Jams, Snow Melt, Flooding |
| 1986 | Flood | Heavy Rains, Landslides & Flooding |
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 59.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Very Low | 28.1 | 8 | 0 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 15 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 62.5 | 2 | 1 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 25.1 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 46.6 | 61 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 51.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 85 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 11.8 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively High | 97.5 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 74.8 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 33.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 33.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Dawson County ranks in the 8th percentile (Very low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8th | Very low |
| Socioeconomic status | 1st | Very low |
| Household characteristics | 15th | Very low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 23rd | Very low |
| Housing type & transportation | 44th | Low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 61st | Relatively High |
| Risk to homes | 62nd | Relatively High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 43.7% | — |
NOAA tracked 73 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 45 in 2016–20 vs 28 in 2021–25 (-38% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Dawson County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Dawson County, Montana are cold wave, winter weather, and lightning. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Dawson County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Dawson County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1986, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is flood (3 declarations).
Has Dawson County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Dawson County include Severe Winter Storm And Straight-Line Winds (2026). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1986.
How does Dawson County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Richland County, MT has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Prairie County, MT has the lowest (Very Low). Dawson County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Dawson County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Dawson County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Dawson County's composite score of 64 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 64% of US counties.