Clay County, IL
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Clay County has experienced 5 federally declared disasters since 2002, most recently Covid-19 in 2020. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Clay County's highest-rated hazards are drought, earthquake, and heat wave, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 36% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Clay County has been designated in 5 declarations since 2002, covering 4 disaster types including biological (2), hurricane (1), snowstorm (1).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2011 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 2002 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes And Flooding |
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 5.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 38.9 | 27 | 0 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 86.3 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 62.1 | 3 | 1 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 41.4 | 6 | 0 | $10.1M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 37.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 44 | 20 | 0 | $6K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 58.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 41.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 37.5 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 42.5 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 24 | 1 | 0 | $30K |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 90.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 55.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Clay County ranks in the 58th percentile (Moderate) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 58th | Moderate |
| Socioeconomic status | 52nd | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 87th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 4th | Very low |
| Housing type & transportation | 60th | Moderate |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 4th | Very Low |
| Risk to homes | 4th | Very Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 41.5% | — |
NOAA tracked 54 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 33 in 2016–20 vs 21 in 2021–25 (-36% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Clay County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Clay County, Illinois are drought, earthquake, and heat wave. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has Clay County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Clay County has received 5 federal disaster declarations since 2002, including declarations in 2020. The most common disaster type on record is biological (2 declarations).
Has Clay County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Clay County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Covid-19 in 2020.
How does Clay County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Marion County, IL has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Jasper County, IL has the lowest (Very Low). Clay County is rated Very Low overall.
How is Clay County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Clay County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Clay County's composite score of 41 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 41% of US counties.