Carter County, MT
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Carter County has experienced 8 federally declared disasters since 2000, most recently Covid-19 in 2020. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Carter County's highest-rated hazards are wildfire, winter weather, and cold wave, with its top risk rated "Relatively Low" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 81% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Carter County has been designated in 8 declarations since 2000, covering 4 disaster types including severe storm (4), biological (2), hurricane (1).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 2001 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| 2000 | Fire | Wildfires |
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 73.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Very Low | 4.1 | 3 | 0 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 12.3 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 7.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 7.6 | 5 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 22.6 | 60 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 4.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 44.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 5.9 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 39.3 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Very Low | 2.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Very Low | 19.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 28 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.4 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Carter County ranks in the 41st percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 41st | Low |
| Socioeconomic status | 51st | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 7th | Very low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 14th | Very low |
| Housing type & transportation | 77th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 88th | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 86th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 81.8% | — |
NOAA tracked 68 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 57 in 2016–20 vs 11 in 2021–25 (-81% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Carter County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Carter County, Montana are wildfire, winter weather, and cold wave. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has Carter County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Carter County has received 8 federal disaster declarations since 2000, including declarations in 2020. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (4 declarations).
Has Carter County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Carter County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Covid-19 in 2020.
How does Carter County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Butte County, SD has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Very Low) and Harding County, SD has the lowest (Very Low). Carter County is rated Very Low overall.
How is Carter County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Carter County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Carter County's composite score of 2 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 2% of US counties.