Carter County, KY
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Carter County has experienced 37 federally declared disasters since 1979, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Carter County's highest-rated hazards are landslide, heat wave, and inland flooding, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 85% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Carter County has been designated in 37 declarations since 1979, covering 9 disaster types including severe storm (19), flood (7), severe ice storm (3).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, And Landslides |
| 2025 | Tropical Storm | Remnants Of Hurricane Helene |
| 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2023 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides |
| 2021 | Flood | Severe, Storms, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Landslides, And Mudslides |
Showing the 10 most recent of 37 total declarations since 1979.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 58.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 69.4 | 46 | 0 | $2.7M |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 42.2 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 86.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 40.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 37 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 31.9 | 11 | 0 | $25K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 38 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 47.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 59 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 19.7 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 41.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Very Low | 15.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Moderate | 89.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Carter County ranks in the 56th percentile (Moderate) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 56th | Moderate |
| Socioeconomic status | 76th | High |
| Household characteristics | 38th | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 5th | Very low |
| Housing type & transportation | 57th | Moderate |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 54th | Relatively Moderate |
| Risk to homes | 50th | Relatively Moderate |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 86.7% | — |
NOAA tracked 57 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 20 in 2016–20 vs 37 in 2021–25 (+85% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Carter County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Carter County, Kentucky are landslide, heat wave, and inland flooding. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Carter County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Carter County has received 37 federal disaster declarations since 1979, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (19 declarations).
Has Carter County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Carter County include Severe Winter Storm (2026), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides (2025), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2025), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, And Landslides (2025), Remnants Of Hurricane Helene (2025), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Landslides, And Mudslides (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1979.
How does Carter County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Boyd County, KY has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Elliott County, KY has the lowest (Very Low). Carter County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Carter County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Carter County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Carter County's composite score of 53 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 53% of US counties.