Carroll County, MO
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Carroll County has experienced 29 federally declared disasters since 1965, most recently Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Carroll County's highest-rated hazards are drought, tornado, and heat wave, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Community vulnerability is relatively low (14th percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Carroll County has been designated in 29 declarations since 1965, covering 7 disaster types including severe storm (14), flood (7), severe ice storm (3).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2021 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
| 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
| 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 29 total declarations since 1965.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 43.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 45.4 | 13 | 0 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 36.5 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 53.8 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 56.8 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | No Rating | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 33.4 | 4 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 19.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 35.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 28.8 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 53.5 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 27.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 81.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 52.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Carroll County ranks in the 14th percentile (Very low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14th | Very low |
| Socioeconomic status | 30th | Low |
| Household characteristics | 13th | Very low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 10th | Very low |
| Housing type & transportation | 16th | Very low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 48th | Relatively Moderate |
| Risk to homes | 47th | Relatively Moderate |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 59.3% | — |
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Carroll County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Carroll County, Missouri are drought, tornado, and heat wave. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has Carroll County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Carroll County has received 29 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (14 declarations).
Has Carroll County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Carroll County include Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2026). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1965.
How does Carroll County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Lafayette County, MO has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Caldwell County, MO has the lowest (Very Low). Carroll County is rated Very Low overall.
How is Carroll County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Carroll County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Carroll County's composite score of 33 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 33% of US counties.