Carroll County, KY
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Carroll County has experienced 22 federally declared disasters since 1979, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Carroll County's highest-rated hazards are tornado, strong wind, and inland flooding, with its top risk rated "Relatively Low" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 25% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (89th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Carroll County has been designated in 22 declarations since 1979, covering 7 disaster types including severe storm (11), flood (4), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, And Landslides |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2018 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslide |
| 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds And Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 22 total declarations since 1979.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 2.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 41.7 | 18 | 0 | $26K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 35 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 22.9 | 3 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 57.8 | 2 | 0 | $70K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 12.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 11 | 5 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 56.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 14.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 40.8 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 23.5 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 26.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Very Low | 18.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 36.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Carroll County ranks in the 89th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 89th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 87th | High |
| Household characteristics | 96th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 37th | Low |
| Housing type & transportation | 79th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 17th | Very Low |
| Risk to homes | 16th | Very Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 68.9% | — |
NOAA tracked 28 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 16 in 2016–20 vs 12 in 2021–25 (-25% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Carroll County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Carroll County, Kentucky are tornado, strong wind, and inland flooding. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has Carroll County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Carroll County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1979, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (11 declarations).
Has Carroll County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Carroll County include Severe Winter Storm (2026), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides (2025), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2025), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, And Landslides (2025). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1979.
How does Carroll County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Jefferson County, IN has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Switzerland County, IN has the lowest (Very Low). Carroll County is rated Very Low overall.
How is Carroll County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Carroll County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Carroll County's composite score of 23 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 23% of US counties.