Box Butte County, NE
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Box Butte County has experienced 9 federally declared disasters since 2001, most recently Severe Storms And Straight-Line Winds in 2021. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Box Butte County's highest-rated hazards are drought, hail, and winter weather, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 20% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Box Butte County has been designated in 9 declarations since 2001, covering 4 disaster types including severe storm (5), biological (2), flood (1).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Straight-Line Winds |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Flood | Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2017 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Straight-Line Winds |
| 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, And Tornadoes |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuees |
| 2001 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding And Tornadoes |
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 61.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Very Low | 5.9 | 2 | 0 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 32.6 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 10 | 2 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 31.1 | 3 | 0 | $1.0M |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 80.3 | 90 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 20 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 68.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 51.5 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 48.3 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 53.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively High | 96.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Box Butte County ranks in the 50th percentile (Moderate) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 50th | Moderate |
| Socioeconomic status | 37th | Low |
| Household characteristics | 52nd | Moderate |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 53rd | Moderate |
| Housing type & transportation | 62nd | Moderate |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 74th | Relatively High |
| Risk to homes | 79th | Relatively High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 37.8% | — |
NOAA tracked 97 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 54 in 2016–20 vs 43 in 2021–25 (-20% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Box Butte County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Box Butte County, Nebraska are drought, hail, and winter weather. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has Box Butte County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Box Butte County has received 9 federal disaster declarations since 2001, including declarations in 2021. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (5 declarations).
Has Box Butte County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Box Butte County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Severe Storms And Straight-Line Winds in 2021.
How does Box Butte County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Scotts Bluff County, NE has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Sioux County, NE has the lowest (Very Low). Box Butte County is rated Very Low overall.
How is Box Butte County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Box Butte County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Box Butte County's composite score of 21 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 21% of US counties.