Barnstable County, MA
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Barnstable County has experienced 24 federally declared disasters since 1972, most recently Hurricane Lee in 2023. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Barnstable County's highest-rated hazards are coastal flooding, hurricane, and inland flooding, with its top risk rated "Very High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 64% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is relatively low (13th percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Barnstable County has been designated in 24 declarations since 1972, covering 7 disaster types including hurricane (9), snowstorm (5), severe storm (4).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Hurricane | Hurricane Lee |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2018 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm And Flooding |
| 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm, Snowstorm, And Flooding |
| 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm, Snowstorm, And Flooding |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2011 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Irene |
| 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 total declarations since 1972.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 53.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 90.7 | 41 | 0 | $161K |
| Coastal Flooding | Very High | 94.6 | 12 | 0 | $208K |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 78.1 | 1 | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 38.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 45.5 | 6 | 0 | $4.9M |
| Hurricane | Relatively High | 94.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 69 | 4 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 60.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 24.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 46.3 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 30.3 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 86.7 | 12 | 0 | $61K |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 31.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 66.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Barnstable County ranks in the 13th percentile (Very low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13th | Very low |
| Socioeconomic status | 15th | Very low |
| Household characteristics | 30th | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 39th | Low |
| Housing type & transportation | 11th | Very low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 12th | Very Low |
| Risk to homes | 17th | Very Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 29.4% | — |
NOAA tracked 75 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 55 in 2016–20 vs 20 in 2021–25 (-64% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Barnstable County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Barnstable County, Massachusetts are coastal flooding, hurricane, and inland flooding. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Has Barnstable County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Barnstable County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including declarations in 2023. The most common disaster type on record is hurricane (9 declarations).
Has Barnstable County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Barnstable County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Hurricane Lee in 2023.
How does Barnstable County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Plymouth County, MA has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Dukes County, MA has the lowest (Very Low). Barnstable County is rated Relatively Moderate overall.
How is Barnstable County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Barnstable County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Barnstable County's composite score of 89 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 89% of US counties.