Barnes County, ND
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Barnes County has experienced 35 federally declared disasters since 1965, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Tornadoes in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Barnes County's highest-rated hazards are winter weather, cold wave, and hail, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 46% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is relatively low (18th percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Barnes County has been designated in 35 declarations since 1965, covering 5 disaster types including flood (19), severe storm (12), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Tornadoes |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm, Tornadoes, And Straight-Line Winds |
| 2024 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm And Straight-Line Winds |
| 2023 | Flood | Flooding |
| 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm And Flooding |
| 2020 | Flood | Flooding |
| 2020 | Flood | Flooding |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Flood | Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 35 total declarations since 1965.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 65.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 41.3 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 5.2 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 19.1 | 2 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 41.8 | 10 | 0 | $30K |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 84.1 | 61 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 73.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively High | 92.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Moderate | 81.5 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 85.5 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Very Low | 10.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Very Low | 24.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 52.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Barnes County ranks in the 18th percentile (Very low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18th | Very low |
| Socioeconomic status | 14th | Very low |
| Household characteristics | 9th | Very low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 29th | Low |
| Housing type & transportation | 58th | Moderate |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 43rd | Relatively Moderate |
| Risk to homes | 45th | Relatively Moderate |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 64.5% | — |
NOAA tracked 74 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 48 in 2016–20 vs 26 in 2021–25 (-46% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Barnes County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Barnes County, North Dakota are winter weather, cold wave, and hail. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Barnes County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Barnes County has received 35 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is flood (19 declarations).
Has Barnes County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Barnes County include Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Tornadoes (2026), Severe Storm, Tornadoes, And Straight-Line Winds (2025), Severe Winter Storm And Straight-Line Winds (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1965.
How does Barnes County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Cass County, ND has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Griggs County, ND has the lowest (Very Low). Barnes County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Barnes County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Barnes County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Barnes County's composite score of 46 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 46% of US counties.