Baca County, CO
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Baca County has experienced 11 federally declared disasters since 1965, most recently Severe Storms, Flooding, And Tornadoes in 2023. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Baca County's highest-rated hazards are drought, wildfire, and hail, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 47% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Baca County has been designated in 11 declarations since 1965, covering 8 disaster types including flood (3), biological (2), snowstorm (1).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, And Tornadoes |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2015 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2007 | Snowstorm | Snow |
| 2005 | Coastal Storm | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 2002 | Fire | Wildfires |
| 2001 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| 1997 | Flood | Severe Storms, Heavy Rain, Flash Floods, Flooding, Mudslides |
| 1977 | Drought | Drought |
Showing the 10 most recent of 11 total declarations since 1965.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 80.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Very Low | 6.4 | 2 | 0 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 19.3 | 1 | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 3.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 26.5 | 7 | 0 | $2K |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 71.1 | 78 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 64.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 50.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 24.5 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 37.8 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 58.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively High | 96.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 5.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Baca County ranks in the 55th percentile (Moderate) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 55th | Moderate |
| Socioeconomic status | 55th | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 46th | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 48th | Low |
| Housing type & transportation | 58th | Moderate |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 87th | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 86th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 59.8% | — |
NOAA tracked 87 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 57 in 2016–20 vs 30 in 2021–25 (-47% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Baca County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Baca County, Colorado are drought, wildfire, and hail. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has Baca County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Baca County has received 11 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including declarations in 2023. The most common disaster type on record is flood (3 declarations).
Has Baca County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Baca County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Severe Storms, Flooding, And Tornadoes in 2023.
How does Baca County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Prowers County, CO has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Hamilton County, KS has the lowest (Very Low). Baca County is rated Very Low overall.
How is Baca County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Baca County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Baca County's composite score of 23 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 23% of US counties.