Aurora County, SD
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Aurora County has experienced 23 federally declared disasters since 1976, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding in 2024. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Aurora County's highest-rated hazards are ice storm, drought, and cold wave, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 15% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is relatively low (10th percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Aurora County has been designated in 23 declarations since 1976, covering 6 disaster types including flood (9), severe storm (8), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Flood | Severe Winter Storm, Snowstorm, And Flooding |
| 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
| 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2010 | Flood | Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 23 total declarations since 1976.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 65.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Very Low | 13 | 16 | 0 | $4.5M |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 17.1 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 8.7 | 19 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 32.3 | 2 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 50.7 | 35 | 0 | $10K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 16.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 54.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Moderate | 81.9 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 77.1 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Very Low | 2.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 77.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 14.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Aurora County ranks in the 10th percentile (Very low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10th | Very low |
| Socioeconomic status | 6th | Very low |
| Household characteristics | 59th | Moderate |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 33rd | Low |
| Housing type & transportation | 8th | Very low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 51st | Relatively Moderate |
| Risk to homes | 52nd | Relatively Moderate |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 75.8% | — |
NOAA tracked 72 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 39 in 2016–20 vs 33 in 2021–25 (-15% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Aurora County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Aurora County, South Dakota are ice storm, drought, and cold wave. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has Aurora County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Aurora County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1976, including declarations in 2024. The most common disaster type on record is flood (9 declarations).
Has Aurora County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Aurora County include Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1976.
How does Aurora County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Brule County, SD has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Sanborn County, SD has the lowest (Very Low). Aurora County is rated Very Low overall.
How is Aurora County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Aurora County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Aurora County's composite score of 20 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 20% of US counties.