Winchester, VA
Local storm history & FEMA National Risk Index data
Winchester is rated Very Low for overall natural hazard risk — among the lowest-risk counties in the country — based on FEMA's National Risk Index for Winchester, VA. The county's highest-rated hazards are hurricane, earthquake, and winter weather.
Storm events near Winchester
NOAA-recorded tornado, hail, and flood events within 25 miles of Winchester's center, 2016–2026 — the only hazards NOAA reports with exact coordinates, so these counts are specific to Winchester itself, not the whole county.
County-wide hazard risk
Every other hazard FEMA and NOAA track — including drought — is only scored at the county level. These are Winchester's FEMA National Risk Index scores, covering Winchester along with the rest of the county, not a Winchester-specific figure.
| Hazard | NRI score | Rating |
|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | 5.2 | Very Low |
| Inland Flooding | 31.9 | Very Low |
| Coastal Flooding | — | Not Applicable |
| Earthquake | 63 | Relatively Low |
| Heat Wave | 48.7 | Relatively Low |
| Tornado | 25.3 | Very Low |
| Avalanche | — | Not Applicable |
| Cold Wave | 10.5 | Very Low |
| Drought | 0 | No Rating |
| Hail | 42.4 | Relatively Low |
| Hurricane | 69.9 | Relatively Low |
| Ice Storm | 12.3 | Very Low |
| Landslide | 11.8 | Very Low |
| Lightning | 29.4 | Relatively Low |
| Strong Wind | 44.3 | Relatively Low |
| Tsunami | — | Not Applicable |
| Volcanic Activity | — | Not Applicable |
| Winter Weather | 50 | Relatively Low |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20.0, December 2025. See the methodology page for definitions, or the full Winchester risk profile for disaster declarations, social vulnerability, and climate projection data.
More on Winchester:
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards is Winchester, VA at risk of?
Winchester is rated Very Low for overall natural hazard risk by FEMA's National Risk Index — among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The highest-rated hazards for Winchester, where Winchester is located, are hurricane, earthquake, and winter weather.
What is Winchester's biggest natural hazard risk?
Hurricane is the highest-rated hazard for Winchester, where Winchester is located, scoring 69.9 out of 100 on FEMA's National Risk Index (rated "Relatively Low").
Is Winchester a high-risk area for natural disasters?
No — Winchester carries among the lowest-risk counties in the country for overall natural hazard risk, per FEMA's National Risk Index rating of "Very Low" for Winchester.
Has Winchester had tornadoes, hail, or flooding?
NOAA has recorded 7 tornado, 89 hail, 303 inland flooding events within 25 miles of Winchester since 2016.