Chapel Hill, NC
Local storm history & FEMA National Risk Index data
Chapel Hill is rated Relatively Low for overall natural hazard risk — lower risk than most US counties — based on FEMA's National Risk Index for Orange County, NC. The county's highest-rated hazards are winter weather, inland flooding, and lightning.
Storm events near Chapel Hill
NOAA-recorded tornado, hail, and flood events within 25 miles of Chapel Hill's center, 2016–2026 — the only hazards NOAA reports with exact coordinates, so these counts are specific to Chapel Hill itself, not the whole county.
County-wide hazard risk
Every other hazard FEMA and NOAA track — including drought — is only scored at the county level. These are Orange County's FEMA National Risk Index scores, covering Chapel Hill along with the rest of the county, not a Chapel Hill-specific figure.
| Hazard | NRI score | Rating |
|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | 28.4 | Very Low |
| Inland Flooding | 85.5 | Relatively Moderate |
| Coastal Flooding | — | Not Applicable |
| Earthquake | 64.9 | Relatively Low |
| Heat Wave | 84.1 | Relatively Moderate |
| Tornado | 81.5 | Relatively Moderate |
| Avalanche | — | Not Applicable |
| Cold Wave | 36.1 | Relatively Low |
| Drought | 54.5 | Relatively Low |
| Hail | 76.5 | Relatively Moderate |
| Hurricane | 81.9 | Relatively Moderate |
| Ice Storm | 73.5 | Relatively Moderate |
| Landslide | 41.7 | Very Low |
| Lightning | 85.3 | Relatively High |
| Strong Wind | 74.5 | Relatively Moderate |
| Tsunami | — | Not Applicable |
| Volcanic Activity | — | Not Applicable |
| Winter Weather | 86.2 | Relatively High |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20.0, December 2025. See the methodology page for definitions, or the full Orange County risk profile for disaster declarations, social vulnerability, and climate projection data.
Other cities in Orange County:
More on Orange County:
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards is Chapel Hill, NC at risk of?
Chapel Hill is rated Relatively Low for overall natural hazard risk by FEMA's National Risk Index — lower risk than most US counties. The highest-rated hazards for Orange County, where Chapel Hill is located, are winter weather, inland flooding, and lightning.
What is Chapel Hill's biggest natural hazard risk?
Winter Weather is the highest-rated hazard for Orange County, where Chapel Hill is located, scoring 86.2 out of 100 on FEMA's National Risk Index (rated "Relatively High").
Is Chapel Hill a high-risk area for natural disasters?
No — Chapel Hill carries lower risk than most US counties for overall natural hazard risk, per FEMA's National Risk Index rating of "Relatively Low" for Orange County.
Has Chapel Hill had tornadoes, hail, or flooding?
NOAA has recorded 14 tornado, 134 hail, 231 inland flooding events within 25 miles of Chapel Hill since 2016.