Carlisle, PA
Local storm history & FEMA National Risk Index data
Carlisle is rated Relatively Moderate for overall natural hazard risk — near the middle compared to other US counties — based on FEMA's National Risk Index for Cumberland County, PA. The county's highest-rated hazards are winter weather, strong wind, and inland flooding.
Storm events near Carlisle
NOAA-recorded tornado, hail, and flood events within 25 miles of Carlisle's center, 2016–2026 — the only hazards NOAA reports with exact coordinates, so these counts are specific to Carlisle itself, not the whole county.
County-wide hazard risk
Every other hazard FEMA and NOAA track — including drought — is only scored at the county level. These are Cumberland County's FEMA National Risk Index scores, covering Carlisle along with the rest of the county, not a Carlisle-specific figure.
| Hazard | NRI score | Rating |
|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | 47.6 | Very Low |
| Inland Flooding | 91.1 | Relatively Moderate |
| Coastal Flooding | — | Not Applicable |
| Earthquake | 81.9 | Relatively Low |
| Heat Wave | 85.6 | Relatively Moderate |
| Tornado | 68.2 | Relatively Moderate |
| Avalanche | 32 | Very Low |
| Cold Wave | 42.1 | Relatively Low |
| Drought | 58.3 | Relatively Low |
| Hail | 14.3 | Very Low |
| Hurricane | 87.4 | Relatively Moderate |
| Ice Storm | 46.4 | Relatively Low |
| Landslide | 74.8 | Relatively Low |
| Lightning | 77.4 | Relatively Moderate |
| Strong Wind | 92.9 | Relatively High |
| Tsunami | — | Not Applicable |
| Volcanic Activity | — | Not Applicable |
| Winter Weather | 94.1 | Relatively High |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20.0, December 2025. See the methodology page for definitions, or the full Cumberland County risk profile for disaster declarations, social vulnerability, and climate projection data.
More on Cumberland County:
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards is Carlisle, PA at risk of?
Carlisle is rated Relatively Moderate for overall natural hazard risk by FEMA's National Risk Index — near the middle compared to other US counties. The highest-rated hazards for Cumberland County, where Carlisle is located, are winter weather, strong wind, and inland flooding.
What is Carlisle's biggest natural hazard risk?
Winter Weather is the highest-rated hazard for Cumberland County, where Carlisle is located, scoring 94.1 out of 100 on FEMA's National Risk Index (rated "Relatively High").
Is Carlisle a high-risk area for natural disasters?
Somewhat — Carlisle carries near the middle compared to other US counties for overall natural hazard risk, per FEMA's National Risk Index rating of "Relatively Moderate" for Cumberland County.
Has Carlisle had tornadoes, hail, or flooding?
NOAA has recorded 7 tornado, 27 hail, 27 inland flooding events within 25 miles of Carlisle since 2016.