Winnebago County, IL
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Winnebago County has experienced 19 federally declared disasters since 1967, most recently Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, And Floodng in 2024. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Winnebago County's highest-rated hazards are cold wave, tornado, and strong wind, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. NOAA records 116 storm events in the county over the past decade. Community vulnerability is elevated (77th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Winnebago County has been designated in 19 declarations since 1967, covering 6 disaster types including snowstorm (6), flood (5), severe storm (4).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, And Floodng |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2011 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
| 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2008 | Snowstorm | Record Snow And Near Record Snow |
| 2007 | Snowstorm | Snow |
| 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 total declarations since 1967.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 32.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively High | 94.4 | 40 | 1 | $3.5M |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 80 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 85.3 | 6 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively High | 97.3 | 8 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 20 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively High | 97.1 | 61 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | 97.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 84.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively High | 85.2 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively High | 97.8 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 89.2 | 2 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 57.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 50.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Winnebago County ranks in the 77th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 77th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 75th | High |
| Household characteristics | 86th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 71st | Moderate |
| Housing type & transportation | 52nd | Moderate |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 12th | Very Low |
| Risk to homes | 11th | Very Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 16.4% | — |
NOAA tracked 116 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 61 in 2016–20 vs 55 in 2021–25 (-10% — relatively stable).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Winnebago County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Winnebago County, Illinois are cold wave, tornado, and strong wind. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Has Winnebago County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Winnebago County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1967, including declarations in 2024. The most common disaster type on record is snowstorm (6 declarations).
Has Winnebago County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Winnebago County include Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, And Floodng (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1967.
How does Winnebago County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, McHenry County, IL has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Green County, WI has the lowest (Relatively Low). Winnebago County is rated Relatively Moderate overall.
How is Winnebago County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Winnebago County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Winnebago County's composite score of 92 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 92% of US counties.