Van Buren County, AR
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Van Buren County has experienced 25 federally declared disasters since 1977, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Van Buren County's highest-rated hazards are ice storm, tornado, and landslide, with its top risk rated "Very High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 33% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (78th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Van Buren County has been designated in 25 declarations since 1977, covering 8 disaster types including severe storm (11), severe ice storm (4), hurricane (3).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2014 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Associated Flooding |
| 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2009 | Severe Storm | Tropical Storm Ike |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 total declarations since 1977.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 75.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 47.9 | 15 | 0 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 76.9 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 61.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 82.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 36.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 29 | 30 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 59.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 60.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very High | 95.9 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 31.3 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 52.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | No Rating | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 77.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Van Buren County ranks in the 78th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 78th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 81st | High |
| Household characteristics | 87th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 22nd | Very low |
| Housing type & transportation | 67th | Moderate |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 78th | Relatively High |
| Risk to homes | 75th | Relatively High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 93.5% | — |
NOAA tracked 45 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 27 in 2016–20 vs 18 in 2021–25 (-33% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Van Buren County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Van Buren County, Arkansas are ice storm, tornado, and landslide. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Van Buren County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Van Buren County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (11 declarations).
Has Van Buren County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Van Buren County include Severe Winter Storm (2026), Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2025). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1977.
How does Van Buren County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Faulkner County, AR has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Searcy County, AR has the lowest (Very Low). Van Buren County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Van Buren County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Van Buren County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Van Buren County's composite score of 51 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 51% of US counties.