Tom Green County, TX
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Tom Green County has experienced 21 federally declared disasters since 1990, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding in 2025. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Tom Green County's highest-rated hazards are drought, hail, and winter weather, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 69% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (81st percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Tom Green County has been designated in 21 declarations since 1990, covering 7 disaster types including fire (6), hurricane (5), severe storm (4).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds And Flooding |
| 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| 2011 | Fire | Wildcat Fire |
| 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| 2008 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ike |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 total declarations since 1990.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 93.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 76.7 | 81 | 1 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 30.5 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 88.5 | 4 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 73.7 | 5 | 0 | $7.7M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 47.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively High | 96.2 | 189 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 49.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively High | 95.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 33.8 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 70.8 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 88.2 | 1 | 0 | $3K |
| Drought | Relatively High | 97.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 15.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Tom Green County ranks in the 81st percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 81st | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 62nd | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 80th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 87th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 83rd | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 94th | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 94th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 33.1% | — |
NOAA tracked 280 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 104 in 2016–20 vs 176 in 2021–25 (+69% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Tom Green County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Tom Green County, Texas are drought, hail, and winter weather. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Tom Green County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Tom Green County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1990, including declarations in 2025. The most common disaster type on record is fire (6 declarations).
Has Tom Green County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Tom Green County include Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding (2025). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1990.
How does Tom Green County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Runnels County, TX has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Very Low) and Sterling County, TX has the lowest (Very Low). Tom Green County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Tom Green County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Tom Green County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Tom Green County's composite score of 77 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 77% of US counties.