St. Francis County, AR
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
St. Francis County has experienced 22 federally declared disasters since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
St. Francis County's highest-rated hazards are tornado, earthquake, and ice storm, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 154% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (98th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. St. Francis County has been designated in 22 declarations since 1969, covering 7 disaster types including severe storm (7), flood (5), severe ice storm (3).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Associated Flooding |
| 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2009 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 22 total declarations since 1969.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 27.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 41.2 | 6 | 1 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | 90.6 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 85.4 | 109 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively High | 96.2 | 4 | 0 | $168K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 51.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 41.2 | 11 | 0 | $10K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | 88.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 41.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively High | 88.7 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 52.9 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 47.8 | 1 | 0 | $60K |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 83 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 56 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
St. Francis County ranks in the 98th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 98th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 94th | High |
| Household characteristics | 94th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 92nd | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 93rd | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 27th | Relatively Low |
| Risk to homes | 26th | Relatively Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 50.2% | — |
NOAA tracked 131 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 37 in 2016–20 vs 94 in 2021–25 (+154% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in St. Francis County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in St. Francis County, Arkansas are tornado, earthquake, and ice storm. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has St. Francis County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. St. Francis County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (7 declarations).
Has St. Francis County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for St. Francis County include Severe Winter Storm (2026), Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2025), Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2025). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1969.
How does St. Francis County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Crittenden County, AR has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Tunica County, MS has the lowest (Very Low). St. Francis County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is St. Francis County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
St. Francis County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. St. Francis County's composite score of 75 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 75% of US counties.