Johnson County, AR
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Johnson County has experienced 26 federally declared disasters since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Johnson County's highest-rated hazards are ice storm, heat wave, and tornado, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 24% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (90th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Johnson County has been designated in 26 declarations since 1972, covering 8 disaster types including severe storm (9), flood (5), severe ice storm (4).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2014 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 26 total declarations since 1972.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 67.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 62 | 15 | 0 | $2K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 69.1 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 79.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 78.9 | 6 | 0 | $21K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 36.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 48.1 | 16 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 60.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 66.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively High | 95.1 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 43.6 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 76 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 46.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 67.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Johnson County ranks in the 90th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 90th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 88th | High |
| Household characteristics | 98th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 57th | Moderate |
| Housing type & transportation | 65th | Moderate |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 67th | Relatively High |
| Risk to homes | 64th | Relatively High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 84.3% | — |
NOAA tracked 37 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 21 in 2016–20 vs 16 in 2021–25 (-24% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Johnson County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Johnson County, Arkansas are ice storm, heat wave, and tornado. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Johnson County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Johnson County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (9 declarations).
Has Johnson County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Johnson County include Severe Winter Storm (2026), Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2025). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1972.
How does Johnson County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Pope County, AR has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Newton County, AR has the lowest (Very Low). Johnson County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Johnson County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Johnson County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Johnson County's composite score of 58 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 58% of US counties.