Jefferson County, AR
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Jefferson County has experienced 25 federally declared disasters since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Jefferson County's highest-rated hazards are ice storm, strong wind, and earthquake, with its top risk rated "Very High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. NOAA records 69 storm events in the county over the past decade. Community vulnerability is elevated (91st percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Jefferson County has been designated in 25 declarations since 1973, covering 7 disaster types including severe storm (9), flood (7), winter storm (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2023 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2020 | Tornado | Severe Storms And Straight-Line Winds |
| 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 total declarations since 1973.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 57.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 78.2 | 31 | 0 | $1.0M |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | 95.6 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 91.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively High | 92.5 | 7 | 0 | $208K |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 65.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 77.1 | 29 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | 95.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 78.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very High | 97.4 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 42.8 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 86.4 | 4 | 0 | $110K |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 62.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 46.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Jefferson County ranks in the 91st percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 91st | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 80th | High |
| Household characteristics | 80th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 93rd | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 95th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 34th | Relatively Low |
| Risk to homes | 33rd | Relatively Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 39.5% | — |
NOAA tracked 69 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 37 in 2016–20 vs 32 in 2021–25 (-14% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Jefferson County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Jefferson County, Arkansas are ice storm, strong wind, and earthquake. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Has Jefferson County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Jefferson County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (9 declarations).
Has Jefferson County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Jefferson County include Severe Winter Storm (2026), Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2025). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1973.
How does Jefferson County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Pulaski County, AR has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively High) and Cleveland County, AR has the lowest (Very Low). Jefferson County is rated Relatively Moderate overall.
How is Jefferson County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Jefferson County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Jefferson County's composite score of 85 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 85% of US counties.