Jeff Davis County, TX
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Jeff Davis County has experienced 18 federally declared disasters since 1998, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2021. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Jeff Davis County's highest-rated hazards are wildfire, landslide, and avalanche, with its top risk rated "Relatively Low" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 46% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Jeff Davis County has been designated in 18 declarations since 1998, covering 5 disaster types including fire (10), hurricane (3), severe ice storm (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2018 | Fire | Mcdannald Fire |
| 2012 | Fire | Livermore Ranch Fire Complex |
| 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| 2011 | Fire | Tejano Canyon Fire |
| 2011 | Fire | Rockhouse Fire |
| 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
Showing the 10 most recent of 18 total declarations since 1998.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 88.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Very Low | 7.9 | 4 | 0 | $1.0M |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 21.4 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 20 | 2 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 6.5 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 13.9 | 25 | 0 | $41K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 4.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 18.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 32.1 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 5.7 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Very Low | 10.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Very Low | 20.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 40 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 39.8 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Jeff Davis County ranks in the 47th percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 47th | Low |
| Socioeconomic status | 50th | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 47th | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 56th | Moderate |
| Housing type & transportation | 36th | Low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 97th | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 98th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 80.7% | — |
NOAA tracked 32 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 13 in 2016–20 vs 19 in 2021–25 (+46% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Jeff Davis County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Jeff Davis County, Texas are wildfire, landslide, and avalanche. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has Jeff Davis County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Jeff Davis County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1998, including declarations in 2021. The most common disaster type on record is fire (10 declarations).
Has Jeff Davis County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Jeff Davis County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Severe Winter Storm in 2021.
How does Jeff Davis County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Pecos County, TX has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Very Low) and Presidio County, TX has the lowest (Very Low). Jeff Davis County is rated Very Low overall.
How is Jeff Davis County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Jeff Davis County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Jeff Davis County's composite score of 3 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 3% of US counties.