Carroll County, IL
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Carroll County has experienced 16 federally declared disasters since 1965, most recently Covid-19 in 2020. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Carroll County's highest-rated hazards are drought, landslide, and strong wind, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 16% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is relatively low (23rd percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Carroll County has been designated in 16 declarations since 1965, covering 6 disaster types including flood (7), snowstorm (3), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2011 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
| 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2008 | Snowstorm | Record Snow And Near Record Snow |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 2001 | Flood | Flooding |
| 1993 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 16 total declarations since 1965.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 13.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 46.5 | 15 | 0 | $11K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 31.6 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 36 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 55.9 | 4 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 12.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 73.1 | 16 | 0 | $1K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 74.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 30.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 45.1 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 56.6 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Very Low | 18 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 84.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 76.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Carroll County ranks in the 23rd percentile (Very low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23rd | Very low |
| Socioeconomic status | 33rd | Low |
| Household characteristics | 11th | Very low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 31st | Low |
| Housing type & transportation | 35th | Low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 15th | Very Low |
| Risk to homes | 15th | Very Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 34.1% | — |
NOAA tracked 35 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 19 in 2016–20 vs 16 in 2021–25 (-16% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Carroll County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Carroll County, Illinois are drought, landslide, and strong wind. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has Carroll County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Carroll County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including declarations in 2020. The most common disaster type on record is flood (7 declarations).
Has Carroll County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Carroll County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Covid-19 in 2020.
How does Carroll County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Stephenson County, IL has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Jackson County, IA has the lowest (Very Low). Carroll County is rated Very Low overall.
How is Carroll County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Carroll County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Carroll County's composite score of 39 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 39% of US counties.